The majority of professional investors are overconfident in their own skill. Most believe they can beat the market, but two out of three fund managers underperform in most years. Despite such results, professional managers remain confident in their skill and abilities—blind to the broader statistical evidence. In this New York Times book excerpt, Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman suggests while the majority of professional stock-pickers look like experts and act like experts, it’s just an illusion.

Don’t Blink! The Hazards of Confidence